Migration Patterns and Urban Social Inequality in China: A Time-Series Analysis of Structural Dynamics and Distributional Effects
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.66348/hsr.26.v1.n1.a32Keywords:
Migration patterns; urban social inequality; China; time-series analysis; ARDL model; labor market segmentation; urbanization; inequality dynamics; hukou system; structural inequality.Abstract
This study examines the dynamic relationship between migration patterns and urban social inequality in China using annual time-series data. Drawing on migration and inequality theories, the study conceptualizes migration as a structural force that reshapes urban distributional outcomes through labor market segmentation, spatial concentration, and institutional barriers. The empirical analysis employs an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) framework to capture both long-run equilibrium relationships and short-run adjustments. The results reveal that migration intensity—measured through net migration rates, urban population growth, and urbanization—significantly increases urban social inequality in both the short and long run. In contrast, higher levels of economic development and education attainment reduce inequality, highlighting their equalizing effects. The presence of cointegration confirms a stable long-run relationship among the variables, while the error correction term indicates rapid adjustment toward equilibrium following short-run shocks. Causality analysis further reveals a bidirectional relationship between migration and inequality, suggesting a feedback loop in which each variable reinforces the other over time. The study concludes that migration-driven urban transformation in China contributes to both economic expansion and rising distributive tensions. Policy implications emphasize the need for inclusive labor market integration, hukou system reform, and expanded investment in education to reduce structural inequality. The findings contribute to the literature by providing macro-level time-series evidence on the migration–inequality nexus in a rapidly urbanizing economy.
Received: 2026-04-12 | Revised: 2026-06-02 | Accepted: 2026-06-23 | Published: 2026-06-30
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Ethics and Guidelines: Not applicable.
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Competing interests: The authors declare no competing interests.
Data availability statement: Data will be made available on reasonable request from the corresponding author.
Funding: This research received no external funding.
Clinical Trial Number: Not Applicable.
Declaration of using generative AI: During the preparation of this work the author(s) used ChatGPT in order to correct the grammatical errors. After using this tool/service, the author(s) reviewed and edited the content as needed and take full responsibility for the content of the published article.
Author Contributions: Conceptualization, A.A.S.; methodology, A.A.S.; formal analysis, A.A.S.; writing—original draft preparation, A.A.S.; writing—review and editing, A.A.S. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.
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